The hottest November steel market may be mixed, an

2022-10-15
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In November, the steel market may rise and fall, and the price will continue to be under pressure.

according to the latest disclosure of Shanghai Steel Union: as of October 29, the steel price in October has gone out of a downward trend, and the comprehensive steel price index fell by 2.08% month on month. In terms of varieties, the price index of long timber fell by 1.35%, and the price index of flat timber fell by 2.99%. The price of iron ore also fell all the way. The comprehensive price index of iron ore fell by 5.75% month on month, the price index of imported ore fell by 7.71%, and the price index of domestic ore fell by 2.49%, basically in line with expectations. Looking forward to November, the steel market is expected to show mixed gains and losses

prices continue to be under pressure

according to the analysis, the macro-economy has not yet shown signs of bottoming, and industrial products will be further destocked, which will continue to exert pressure on prices

first, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the third quarter exceeded 7% for the first time since the first quarter of 2009, and it will take time for the economy to get out of the medium-term bottom

secondly, the weak market demand, the continuous decline of prices, the high cost, and the continuous high inventory and accounts receivable restrict the improvement of the production and operation of industrial enterprises. In particular, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises has hit a new low in the past five years, and there will still be a trend of further destocking in the short term. Coupled with the long-term sustained losses of some enterprises, enterprises have a strong willingness to continue to destock, which will continue to bring downward pressure on commodity prices

demand has improved

the analysis believes that there are also some positive signals in the macro aspect. For example, from January to September, the experimental method AAMA 501 (9) 4 for the external window curtain wall of finished product inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 4.9% year-on-year, the growth rate for the third consecutive month. For most of the utilization of high molecular polymers, it fell last month, hitting a new low in the past five years, laying the foundation for the replenishment of stocks in the future. The new construction area of houses rose month on month for three consecutive months. In addition, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in September was as high as 26.9%, and remained above 20% for three consecutive months. A series of loose fiscal expenditure has played a certain role in promoting the launch of some approved projects and the expansion of production and operation activities of enterprises. The likely rate of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve was postponed to 2016, and the constraints of the external environment on domestic policies were eased

2. In the field of inspection instruments and equipment

industry, there is still pressure on steel mill inventory and billet inventory. According to the statistics of China Steel Association, the inventory of sample steel mills remained at a high level of 15.0744 million tons in the first ten days of October, and the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan remained at a relatively high level of 699000 tons on October 29. With the continuous decline of ore prices and the reduction of production by northern enterprises, the pressure of aftermarket digestion will still exist. And the pressure of billet will be transmitted to the ore price, and then to the steel price. There is a slight increase in supply, and the short-term production reduction is limited, but it will not significantly increase production

the survey data on October 30 showed that the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 163 steel plants increased slightly by 0.09%~84.86%. According to the survey data, the global market value of functional composites will increase to US $43.35 billion in the next five years, and the rate has increased for two consecutive weeks. The main reasons are: first, the production lines that cut production in the early stage will resume production; second, the recent decline in the cost of some enterprises and some varieties is greater than that of materials, and the marginal contribution has improved, resulting in increased production

in terms of demand, the survey shows that the daily transaction data of 239 enterprises have increased slightly in recent weeks. At the same time, the inventory of steel mills decreased significantly for two consecutive weeks, while the social inventory also decreased by 7.2% in the same period, which also confirmed the improvement of demand

according to the comprehensive analysis, under the background that the macro economy is still facing great downward pressure, there is still room for the steel market to fall in November, but with the improvement of the relationship between supply and demand, some regions and some varieties are expected to show a mixed trend

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